(Excerpt)
Vehicle production in Portugal grew by 12.2% year on year (y/y)
during April, according to data published by the Portuguese Car
Trade Association (Associação Comércio Automóvel de Portugal:
ACAP). Output of passenger cars, light commercial vehicles (LCVs),
and medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCVs) increased to
28,602 units last month, which helped support a 25.8% y/y gain to
123,073 units in the year to date (YTD). Supporting this growth was
passenger car production, which increased 13.5% y/y to 23,506 units
last month, and was up by 26.9% y/y to 101,662 units in the YTD. In
addition, LCV production increased 7.9% y/y to 4,700 units in
April, and was up by 21.6% y/y to 19,518 units in the YTD. MHCV
output declined 14.1% y/y to 396 units last month, although it grew
by 11.5% y/y to 1,893 units in the YTD.
Significance: The Portuguese vehicle production
totals for last month are likely to have been hampered partly by
the timing of Easter this year. However, the limited number of
light vehicle producers in Portugal makes it relatively easy to
analyse how this growth situation materialised. In terms of
passenger cars, the improvement will have come from Volkswagen's
(VW's) Autoeuropa facility and is likely to be mainly down to the
popularity of its T-Roc crossover, which is built there and is
continuing to win over customers. With it now being in production
since the second half of 2017, it is also unsurprising to see
growth rates in output start to flatten. As for the LCV category,
this increase is mainly down to Groupe PSA's facility in Mangualde.
However, it added an extra shift in April 2018, and as such may
also see a flattening in growth rates at this higher level. It will
also be supported by a further increase in production later this
year with the addition of the latest-generation Opel Combo being
built there. IHS Markit expects that Portugal's passenger-car
production will grow 12% to 247,300 units in 2019, before starting
to slip back during 2020. LCV production is forecast to expand by
around 20.4% to nearly 82,000 units in 2019, with a further more
modest gain expected in 2020.
